Dowell Myers , a demographer at the University of Southern California, posed this question to urban planners during the annual American Planning Association conference in New Orleans.
Struggling with neighborhoods filled with foreclosed and abandoned homes – the fallout of the nation’s subprime lending fiasco and resulting economic crisis -- planners were warned that more trouble looms ahead.
As baby boomers retire and want to downsize – move out of their homes into townhouses, “adult” communities, or assisted living – they will find few buyers. And the buyers they do find likely will come from a growing immigrant community.
The future financial well-being of the baby boomer generation – in terms of home sales, government services, medical care, etc. – is tied to the progress minority groups, particularly Hispanics in California, can make in their educations and career aspirations.
“In the 1970s, the baby boomers came of age,” Myers said, noting home prices and sizes rose as boomers moved up their career ladders. With boomers surfing through the market, it’s was no surprise that “sooner or later they would hit the beach.”
People born between 1946 and 1964 are considered baby boomers. The generation now is about 80 million strong (and graying.)
In California, alone, there were 9.7 million baby boomers between the ages of 40 and 49 in 2005. They constituted 51 percent of the prime working-age population.
By 2020, these baby boomers will be 55 to 74 years old – retired or nearing retirement. According to Myers, the ratio of retirees to “workers” – people 25 to 64 years old – will jump 30 percent, and an additional 29 percent by 2030.
The ratio of seniors to working-age people in California is about 250 per 1,000 today. Myers predicted the ratio will balloon to 411 per 1,000 in 2030.
Myers has written about this demographic time bomb in his book “Immigrants and Boomers : Forging a New Social Contract for the Future of America,” as well as in articles for the American Planning Association and other groups.
With significant population growth occurring primarily in immigrant groups, Myers told urban planners that efforts must be made to increase the educations and earning potentials in these groups.
If baby boomers want to sell off their major investments – their homes – they must “grow” a generation with the money to buy them. They must be willing to spend money to improve the schools that minority students attend and open economic opportunity doors.
“Every seller needs a good buyer,” said Myers.
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